Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis in presence of data-driven epistemic uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
Reliability assessment in presence of epistemic uncertainty leads to consider the failure probability as a quantity depending on state knowledge about uncertain input parameters. The joint distribution is often learnt from small-sized dataset provided by operating experience. computed depends estimated marginal distributions and copula distribution. This paper develops reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis procedure order measure influence exerted data-driven modeling both margins copula. proposed methodology validated for deterministic stochastic reliability methods through an extensive simulation study including several analytical performance functions well real-life code dealing with buckling laminated composite plate.
منابع مشابه
Modeling of Epistemic Uncertainty in Reliability Analysis of Structures Using a Robust Genetic Algorithm
In this paper the fuzzy structural reliability index was determined through modeling epistemic uncertainty arising from ambiguity in statistical parameters of random variables. The First Order Reliability Method (FORM) has been used and a robust genetic algorithm in the alpha level optimization method has been proposed for the determination of the fuzzy reliability index. The sensitivity level ...
متن کاملmodeling of epistemic uncertainty in reliability analysis of structures using a robust genetic algorithm
in this paper the fuzzy structural reliability index was determined through modeling epistemic uncertainty arising from ambiguity in statistical parameters of random variables. the first order reliability method (form) has been used and a robust genetic algorithm in the alpha level optimization method has been proposed for the determination of the fuzzy reliability index. the sensitivity level ...
متن کاملSensitivity analysis in presence of model uncertainty and correlated inputs
The first motivation of this work is to take into account model uncertainty in sensitivity analysis (SA). We present with some examples, a methodology to treat uncertainty due to a mutation of the studied model. Development of this methodology has highlighted an important problem, frequently encountered in SA: how to interpret sensitivity indices when random inputs are non-independent? This pap...
متن کاملReliability Assessment of Distribution Systems in Presence of Microgrids Considering Uncertainty in Generation and Load Demand
The microgrid concept provides attractive solutions for reliability enhancement of power distribution systems. Normally, microgrids contain renewable-energy-based Distributed Generation (DG) units, which their output power varies with different environmental conditions. In addition, load demand usually changes with factors such as hourly and seasonal customer activities. Hence, these issues hav...
متن کاملEpistemic Uncertainty Propagation in Reliability Assessment of Complex Systems
Uncertainties are present in any reliability calculations due to randomness in the failure/repair phenomena and given the limitation in assessing the parameters of the failure/repair probability density functions. The simplifications and idealizations also generate uncertainties which can be classified as aleatory (arising due to randomness) and/or epistemic (due to lack of knowledge). It is ve...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Reliability Engineering & System Safety
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1879-0836', '0951-8320']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107733